OMG! Again Cyclone…

Bhubaneswar (Reporters Today Bureau): The cyclone season has begun as March to May is considered as the first cyclone season for the Indian seas. The Bay of Bengal may host a cyclonic storm this month with chances of formation of a cyclonic circulation over south-east Bay of Bengal around March 20. The system might intensity and reach north Bay of Bengal. However, forecast regarding its level of intensification and chances of cyclone formation was yet to be made. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) was yet to make any official forecast in this regard.

However, the IMD in its ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook’ issued on March 10 had said that some models like IMD GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble and NCEP GFS are indicating a cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by March 16. Favourable MJO & sea conditions and various models guidance indicate development of a cyclonic circulation over the central parts of south Bay of Bengal leading to enhanced convective activity over the region, the agency had said.

Weather expert Surendranath Pasupalak said NCEP GFS model has indicated chances of change of direction of the possible system and it may not strike the coast of India. The country has not witnessed any cyclone in the month of March during the last few years. However, climate change might result in movement of the system towards India coast, he said, adding that a clear picture of the system will come to fore around March 20.