Hunger still a huge problem

According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, the world’s population suffering from hunger — the food they consume isn’t sufficient to provide the minimum dietary energy requirement for leading a normal, active and healthy life — rose to 784.4 million in 2015, 804.2 million in 2016 and 820.8 million in 2017, from the 2014 low of 783.7 million. In relative terms, too, the share of the undernourished in the world population has gone up from 10.7% to 10.9% since 2014.

What is interesting, though, is that the reversal of a prolonged declining trend in world hunger has come despite a collapse in international agri-commodity prices after 2014. The FAO’s own Food Price Index (base year: 2002-2004=100) plunged from an average of 201.8 in 2014 to 164, 161.5 and 174.6 for the following three years. It had previously soared from 97.7 in 2003 to as high as 229.9 in 2011 and remained at 200-plus levels till 2014. And ironically, throughout that period of rising food prices, global hunger numbers kept dipping (see global chart).

Shouldn’t the commodity price collapse or easing of inflation since 2014, after all, have made food more affordable and reduced the prevalence of hunger?

Some explanations:

The first is the displacement of civilian population and food insecurity resulting from conflicts. Roughly 500 million out of the world’s 821 million undernourished people live in conflict-ridden regions such as West Asia, North and northern sub-Saharan Africa, Central America and Eastern Europe. Violent conflicts, both state-based and between organised armed groups, have increased dramatically, especially after 2010.

The second is climate variations (in temperature and rainfall) and extremes (leading to droughts, heat waves, floods, storms, etc). The 2015-16 El Niño — the abnormal warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean waters, known to adversely impact monsoon rainfall in countries such as India — was one of the strongest events of the past 100 years. It also contributed to 2016 being the warmest and 2015 the second warmest year based on recorded global average temperatures. The six warmest years for the planet have all occurred since 2010.